Patches 16.19–16.20

Mains view. This shows what players who main Ezreal (it’s their #1 mastery champion) pick in 739 of their games. The verdicts and numbers are still everyone’s. Mains get their own at 1,500 games. Everyone’s page

Your next item given what you own

Pick your 1st item and then your 2nd. Each column shows what players bought next, scored from the purchase on.

Take this build into the game

This is every step as Ezreal mains play it. Their most picked option comes first.

Then in the client: Collection › Items › Import item sets
How to read the numbers
Better +2.0%

The main number is how much more an option wins than the most picked one in similar games. Those are games with the same game state and minute of purchase, played on the same patch by players with as much experience. A +2.0% means about two more wins per 100 games. Numbers from few games are pulled toward what the option does on other champions.

±1.2

± is the marginMargin (±)The real number is very likely inside this range. More games make it narrower.. The real difference is very likely inside it. On the bar, the dot is the number and the band is the margin. The black line means no difference.

BetterWorseEvenUnclear

Better or Worse means the whole margin is on one side of zero and the difference is at least half a point. Even means we know the two are within a point of each other. Unclear means it could go either way. With Not enough games, there are too few games to say anything yet.

vs expected +1.7%

vs expected (WPA) asks whether games with the option ended better than their win chance when it was chosen. It doesn’t compare options with each other. Next to it is the win chance it’s usually taken at.

Item numbers start at the purchase and cover the first 10 min and the rest of the game.The full guide

What the data says about items

We run the same checks on every champion
Early edge only

Doran's Blade as starter

It does clearly better than Doran's Bow in lane. It loses that edge later in the game.

Lane, 0–14When it pays offThe same difference split by game time. Lane is 0–14 min, mid is 14–25 and late is the rest.+1.7% ±1.3
Whole gameWin chanceHow much more this option wins than the most picked one, in games alike in draft, patch and players. +1% is about one more win per 100 games.+0.2% ±3.0
Every option for this slot

Items when behind or ahead

Each item compared with the most bought one in the 10 minutes after buying · behind is 40% win chance or less and ahead is 60%+ · 20,640 purchases

Items when behind or ahead

Each item is compared with the slot’s most bought one over the 10 minutes after it’s bought. Games are split by whether Ezreal was behind (40% win chance or less when bought), even, or ahead (60% or more). Where Ezreal’s own purchases are few, the number leans on every bot that buys the item.

No item does clearly better or worse than the most bought one in any game state yet. Stick with the usual build.

Every option in each slot

Each slot is shown on its own. It lists every option taken in at least 1% of games.

Starter

Doran's Bow is the most picked. The others are compared with it. Doran's Blade is the next most picked. The Baseline row compares the two. The Mains column is the share of mains’ games. Verdicts stay everyone’s until mains have 1,500 games.

OptionPickedPickedHow often players take this option for this choice.MainsVerdictVerdictBetter or Worse means the whole margin sits on one side of zero. Even means the two are within a point. Win chance vs Doran's BowWin chanceHow much more this option wins than the most picked one, in games alike in draft, patch and players. +1% is about one more win per 100 games. LaneWhen it pays offThe same difference split by game time. Lane is 0–14 min, mid is 14–25 and late is the rest.MidWhen it pays offThe same difference split by game time. Lane is 0–14 min, mid is 14–25 and late is the rest.LateWhen it pays offThe same difference split by game time. Lane is 0–14 min, mid is 14–25 and late is the rest.vs expectedvs expectedHow games with this option ended against their win chance when it was chosen. It’s a hint. The verdict reads the win chance number.
Doran's BowOur pickOur pickThe option shown in What wins most often: the most picked one, unless another clearly wins more.4,604 games · picked atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 46.5% win chance79% of games · 85% of mains85%BaselineBaselineThe most picked option. The others are compared with it. Its own number compares it with the next most picked.+0.3% ±1.7vs Doran's BladeLane −0.2%Mid −0.1%Late +0.6%vs expected 0.0%±1.4
Doran's Blade1,052 games · picked atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 46.7% win chance18% of games · 13% of mains13%Unclear−0.3% ±1.7same players onlySame playersThe same comparison among players who used both options. Each player is compared with themselves. +10.6% ±17.8Lane +0.2%Mid +0.1%Late −0.6%vs expected −0.1%±3.0
Tear of the Goddess115 games · picked atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 46.1% win chance2% of games · 0% of mains0%Too close to callToo close to callPlenty of games, but too few players tried both, or the gap with the most picked option is too small to call. It could go either way.···vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.

Boots

Ionian Boots of Lucidity is the most picked. The others are compared with it. Gluttonous Greaves is the next most picked. The Baseline row compares the two. The Mains column is the share of mains’ games. Verdicts stay everyone’s until mains have 1,500 games.

OptionPickedPickedHow often players take this option for this choice.MainsVerdictVerdictBetter or Worse means the whole margin sits on one side of zero. Even means the two are within a point. Win chance vs Ionian Boots of LucidityWin chanceHow much more this option wins than the most picked one, in games alike in draft, patch and players. +1% is about one more win per 100 games. First 10 minAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.Rest of gameAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.vs expectedvs expectedHow games with this option ended against their win chance when it was chosen. It’s a hint. The verdict reads the win chance number.
Ionian Boots of LucidityOur pickOur pickThe option shown in What wins most often: the most picked one, unless another clearly wins more.3,895 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 51.9% win chance70% of games · 68% of mains68%BaselineBaselineThe most picked option. The others are compared with it. Its own number compares it with the next most picked.−0.5% ±1.7vs Gluttonous GreavesFirst 10 min +0.3%Rest of game −0.5%vs expected −5.4%±1.6
Gluttonous Greaves1,347 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 55.4% win chance24% of games · 28% of mains28%Unclear+0.5% ±1.7First 10 min −0.3%Rest of game +0.5%vs expected −4.8%±2.7
Plated Steelcaps202 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 50.0% win chance4% of games · 3% of mains3%Unclear+1.1% ±2.0First 10 min +0.5%Rest of game +0.5%vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Mercury's Treads72 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 51.8% win chance1% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.

1st item

Trinity Force is the most picked. The others are compared with it. Essence Reaver is the next most picked. The Baseline row compares the two. The Mains column is the share of mains’ games. Verdicts stay everyone’s until mains have 1,500 games.

OptionPickedPickedHow often players take this option for this choice.MainsVerdictVerdictBetter or Worse means the whole margin sits on one side of zero. Even means the two are within a point. Win chance vs Trinity ForceWin chanceHow much more this option wins than the most picked one, in games alike in draft, patch and players. +1% is about one more win per 100 games. First 10 minAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.Rest of gameAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.vs expectedvs expectedHow games with this option ended against their win chance when it was chosen. It’s a hint. The verdict reads the win chance number.
Trinity ForceOur pickOur pickThe option shown in What wins most often: the most picked one, unless another clearly wins more.5,464 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 50.6% win chance94% of games · 97% of mains97%BaselineBaselineThe most picked option. The others are compared with it. Its own number compares it with the next most picked.+1.6% ±2.3vs Essence ReaverFirst 10 min +0.5%Rest of game +0.9%vs expected −3.6%±1.3
Essence Reaver250 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 50.6% win chance4% of games · 0% of mains0%Unclear−1.6% ±2.3same players onlySame playersThe same comparison among players who used both options. Each player is compared with themselves. −8.5% ±20.2First 10 min −0.5%Rest of game −0.9%vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Manamune75 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 49.8% win chance1% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.

2nd item

Manamune is the most picked. The others are compared with it. The Mains column is the share of mains’ games. Verdicts stay everyone’s until mains have 1,500 games.

OptionPickedPickedHow often players take this option for this choice.MainsVerdictVerdictBetter or Worse means the whole margin sits on one side of zero. Even means the two are within a point. Win chance vs ManamuneWin chanceHow much more this option wins than the most picked one, in games alike in draft, patch and players. +1% is about one more win per 100 games. First 10 minAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.Rest of gameAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.vs expectedvs expectedHow games with this option ended against their win chance when it was chosen. It’s a hint. The verdict reads the win chance number.
ManamuneOur pickOur pickThe option shown in What wins most often: the most picked one, unless another clearly wins more.5,159 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 52.9% win chance97% of games · 99% of mains99%BaselineBaselineThe most picked option. The others are compared with it. Its own number compares it with the next most picked.The others are compared with it··vs expected −4.4%±1.4
Trinity Force62 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 48.4% win chance1% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.

3rd item

Spear of Shojin is the most picked. The others are compared with it. Endless Hunger is the next most picked. The Baseline row compares the two. The Mains column is the share of mains’ games. Verdicts stay everyone’s until mains have 1,500 games.

OptionPickedPickedHow often players take this option for this choice.MainsVerdictVerdictBetter or Worse means the whole margin sits on one side of zero. Even means the two are within a point. Win chance vs Spear of ShojinWin chanceHow much more this option wins than the most picked one, in games alike in draft, patch and players. +1% is about one more win per 100 games. First 10 minAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.Rest of gameAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.vs expectedvs expectedHow games with this option ended against their win chance when it was chosen. It’s a hint. The verdict reads the win chance number.
Spear of ShojinOur pickOur pickThe option shown in What wins most often: the most picked one, unless another clearly wins more.1,938 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 56.2% win chance46% of games · 44% of mains44%BaselineBaselineThe most picked option. The others are compared with it. Its own number compares it with the next most picked.−0.5% ±1.9vs Endless HungerFirst 10 min −0.4%Rest of game 0.0%vs expected −4.7%±2.2
Endless Hunger1,266 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 59.0% win chance30% of games · 38% of mains38%Unclear+0.5% ±1.9same players onlySame playersThe same comparison among players who used both options. Each player is compared with themselves. −2.4% ±14.7First 10 min +0.4%Rest of game 0.0%vs expected −3.2%±2.8
Serylda's Grudge618 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 49.7% win chance15% of games · 11% of mains11%Unclear−0.2% ±2.1same players onlySame playersThe same comparison among players who used both options. Each player is compared with themselves. −10.0% ±13.5First 10 min −0.4%Rest of game +0.3%vs expected −5.0%±3.9
Frozen Heart65 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 49.8% win chance2% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Lord Dominik's Regards50 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 51.7% win chance1% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Maw of Malmortius42 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 56.5% win chance1% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.

4th item

Serylda's Grudge is the most picked. The others are compared with it. Spear of Shojin is the next most picked. The Baseline row compares the two. The Mains column is the share of mains’ games. Verdicts stay everyone’s until mains have 1,500 games.

OptionPickedPickedHow often players take this option for this choice.MainsVerdictVerdictBetter or Worse means the whole margin sits on one side of zero. Even means the two are within a point. Win chance vs Serylda's GrudgeWin chanceHow much more this option wins than the most picked one, in games alike in draft, patch and players. +1% is about one more win per 100 games. First 10 minAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.Rest of gameAfter buyingThe item counts from the minute it’s finished. The first number covers the next 10 minutes.vs expectedvs expectedHow games with this option ended against their win chance when it was chosen. It’s a hint. The verdict reads the win chance number.
Serylda's GrudgeOur pickOur pickThe option shown in What wins most often: the most picked one, unless another clearly wins more.961 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 57.8% win chance41% of games · 34% of mains34%BaselineBaselineThe most picked option. The others are compared with it. Its own number compares it with the next most picked.+1.1% ±2.2vs Spear of ShojinFirst 10 min +0.4%Rest of game +0.3%vs expected −4.4%±3.2
Spear of Shojin501 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 60.0% win chance21% of games · 30% of mains30%Unclear−1.1% ±2.2same players onlySame playersThe same comparison among players who used both options. Each player is compared with themselves. +11.0% ±20.3First 10 min −0.4%Rest of game −0.3%vs expected −6.9%±4.4
Endless Hunger418 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 59.8% win chance18% of games · 19% of mains19%Unclear−0.9% ±2.2same players onlySame playersThe same comparison among players who used both options. Each player is compared with themselves. +3.3% ±21.9First 10 min −0.7%Rest of game −0.2%vs expected −6.5%±4.8
Frozen Heart144 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 56.7% win chance6% of games · 0% of mains0%Unclear+0.3% ±2.4First 10 min +0.3%Rest of game +0.1%vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Maw of Malmortius73 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 54.0% win chance3% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Lord Dominik's Regards66 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 55.1% win chance3% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Mortal Reminder59 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 51.4% win chance3% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Serpent's Fang27 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 49.7% win chance1% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.
Guardian Angel26 games · bought atWin chance when chosenThe game’s average win chance when this was picked or bought. A high number means it’s mostly bought in games already won. 66.7% win chance1% of games · 0% of mains0%Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.··vs expected Not enough gamesNot enough gamesToo few games to say anything yet. The number shows once more games come in.

Everyone or mains

Mains are players whose #1 mastery champion is this one. We know the mastery of 717,000 ranked players from Platinum to Challenger. That covers about half the players in our games. Below 1,500 games by mains, the mains view shows what they pick next to everyone’s verdicts. From 1,500 games on, every number is the mains’ own.

More in the guide

WPA (win probability added)

On the pages it’s labelled “vs expected”. It compares how games with the option ended with the win chance they had when it was chosen (the draft for runes and spells, the minute of purchase for items). +1.0% is about one more win per 100 games than expected. The comparison is with what players usually do from there. It can’t compare two options with each other. Because popular options make up most of what “usual” is, it understates them. Options that strong players favor also look better here than they are. Use it as a hint and let the main number decide the verdict.

More in the guide

Win chance against the most picked

This is how much more each option wins than the most picked one, in points of win chance. The games compared have the same draft odds or game state, the same patch and the same player experience. Numbers from few games are then pulled toward what the same option does on other champions. A number from 300 games keeps little of its size. With thousands of games, most of it stays.

More in the guide

Better, worse, even, unclear

The verdict reads the number after the pull and its 95% margin (±). Better or Worse needs the whole margin on one side of zero and a difference of at least half a point. Even means we know the two are within a point of each other. When it could go either way, the verdict is Unclear. Not enough games means too few players tried both, or the number is mostly the pull.

More in the guide

Lane, mid and late game

The difference is split by when the win chance moved: lane (0–14 min), mid game (14–25) and late game (25 to the end). The three add up to the whole game. They show when an option pays off or costs you.

More in the guide

After the purchase

An item counts only from the minute it’s finished. Its numbers cover the 10 minutes after the purchase and the rest of the game. What happened before the purchase explains why the item was bought. Those minutes don’t count toward the item.

More in the guide

Not enough games

There are too few games to say anything yet. The margin would be wider than ±5%, or the number would be too noisy to say anything. The number appears once more games narrow the margin.

More in the guide

What the data says

We run seven checks on every champion. Two flag common picks that cost win chance and results carried by one player. The others catch theory that real games don’t back, answers that change with your build, keystone gaps that go with the build, options that pay off in only one phase, and lanes that turn after minute 14.

More in the guide

Pays off in one phase

This option’s whole-game number hides what happens in one phase. For example, it may win lane and lose that edge later, or pay off late. The number for that phase moves at least 1%.

More in the guide