What an objective is worth
How far a team’s win chance moves in the minute it takes each objective, the fight around it included, by how the game stood the minute before. Behind is 40% or less, ahead 60% or more.ObjectiveBehindEvenAheadBehind at 14, later
Void grub+2.6% ±0.1+2.3% ±0.1+1.3% ±0.1·
Rift Herald+4.4% ±0.3+2.4% ±0.3−0.4% ±0.1+4.3%
Dragon+10.5% ±0.1+8.9% ±0.1+3.6% ±0.1+10.5%
Tower+6.2% ±0.1+5.9% ±0.1+1.7% ±0.0+5.7%
Baron+16.3% ±0.4+14.0% ±0.4+3.4% ±0.1+15.3%
Inhibitor+16.0% ±1.7+10.5% ±1.6+0.2% ±0.2+16.0%
A void grub or a tower moves little, a dragon, an inhibitor or a Baron a lot, and every objective swings most for a team behind or even: one already ahead has little win chance left to gain. The win-chance model reads the whole state every minute . It says what taking an objective is worth. Whether to contest it is your call: a lost fight costs more than the objective gives.
From 53,722 ranked games with full timelines, counted on 31 Oct 2026. Tables of how often the team with first dragon wins mostly measure teams that were already ahead. This one measures the minute of the take, from the win chance just before it.